Australia’s National Climate Risk Assessment — what it means for our gardens, homes and neighbourhoods
The federal government’s first-ever National Climate Risk Assessment landed in September 2025 with a blunt message: climate change is already reshaping Australia, and the risks we’ve long treated as ‘future problems’ are now things to plan around when we design landscapes, homes and public spaces.
For people who care about gardens, outdoor living and resilient homes, the headline findings are twofold and simple: more extreme heat, and more water-driven disruption — both of which change what plants we choose, how we site structures and how we protect property values.
The difference between 1.5 °C and 3 °C isn’t small — DCCEEW says it’s the difference between impacts we can adapt to and impacts that become frequent crises.
The hardest numbers to ignore
Some of the report’s findings are stark and concrete: by 2050, an additional 1.5 million Australians could be living in high-risk coastal areas exposed to sea-level rise and more frequent coastal flooding — rising to over 3 million by the end of the century under higher-warming scenarios. Heat impacts are equally sharp: in a ~3 °C warming pathway the report models, heat-related deaths could rise by several hundred per cent in major cities. The assessment also projects large economic costs from more frequent disasters.
Those figures are the macro story. For us at ground level — gardeners, designers, builders and homeowners — they translate into three practical realities:
Coastal exposure is likely to get worse — many low-lying properties will face repeated inundation or chronic salt intrusion.
Extreme heat is an everyday design constraint — it changes plant selection, outdoor usability, and health risks for vulnerable people.
Nature will shift — many native plant communities will be outside their historical climate envelopes, so long-term planting strategies must assume movement and replacement rather than static permanence.
What the “solutions” literature says — and why it matters for design
The What Is Missing? — Greenprint solutions emphasise that the pathway out of this isn’t only technical fixes: it’s a mix of conservation, large-scale restoration, smarter land-use and rapid renewable energy rollout. Their case is that if we protect more land and water and drive hard on renewables, we can limit harm and even push toward net-negative emissions by 2100 — and those systemic moves make local resilience work easier and cheaper.
Translating that to practical landscape work means thinking at two scales:
Macro policy + local action: push for protected habitat corridors and restoration projects in your region — these reduce species loss and maintain ecosystem services (pollination, shade, groundwater recharge). Simultaneously, implement small-scale solutions: soil building, canopy planting and water capture on your site.
Design for movement: species ranges will shift. Use planting palettes that include climate-resilient natives and a diversity of forms so the garden can adapt without total overhaul.
Practical design choices to build resilience (what you can do now)
Below are pragmatic steps you can implement;
1. Prioritise Canopy and Microclimate
Large trees and well-designed shade structures reduce heat islands, make outdoor spaces usable in hotter summers, and protect soil moisture. Choose long-lived, drought-tolerant natives where appropriate.
2. Soil and Water First
Capture rain (swales, tanks, permeable paving) and build soil organic matter. Healthy soil buffers plants against both drought and heavy downpours.
3. Salt and Flooding Tolerance Near Coasts
If you’re within projected inundation zones, select salt-tolerant species, raise critical infrastructure (switchboards, storerooms) and avoid expensive hardscapes that will fail with waterlogging.
4. Flexible, Relocatable Elements
Design with modular furniture, removable fencing and plantings that can be shifted as conditions change — this reduces replacement costs if a spot becomes unusable.
5. Biodiversity and Connectivity
Include pollinator corridors and layered plantings. Even small gardens can act as stepping stones for wildlife if they provide food and shelter year-round. This aligns with the broader conservation strategies the Greenprint advocates.
Policy and Bigger Picture: Why we should care beyond individual gardens
The NCRA makes clear that adaptation in yards and suburbs must sit alongside large-scale climate solutions: protecting and restoring habitats, reforming land-use, and decarbonising energy systems — the same pillars outlined by the What Is Missing? Green print. When those systems are funded and scaled, local adaptation is more effective and less costly.
Final Thoughts
Yes, the assessment is alarming. But it’s also useful: it tells us where to focus our effort. For The Scape Artist community, that means designing with a new baseline — one that treats heat, water and shifting ecosystems as design inputs rather than surprises. By combining thoughtful, resilient garden design with advocacy for the bigger conservation and renewable changes the GreenPrint suggests, we help protect both property and the nature people come to value most.
Please visit both of the websites listed below for more information
References- https://www.dcceew.gov.au/
https://www.whatismissing.org/solutions